Bitcoin Recovers to $114,000 Amid Strong Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $114,200 during Thursday’s Asian morning session, marking a 2.4% increase over the previous 24 hours. The recovery comes during a week filled with significant macroeconomic events that could influence cryptocurrency markets.
The cryptocurrency market showed widespread strength, with major altcoins posting notable gains alongside Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) rose 2.4% to $4,400, while XRP climbed above the $3 threshold. BNB Chain’s native token BNB approached $900 an hit a new ATH on Wednesday evening, and Solana (SOL) gained nearly 3% over the same period.
Dogecoin (DOGE) emerged as the day’s top performer among major cryptocurrencies, posting a 5% daily increase that extended its weekly gains to 15.9%.
Valuation Analysis Points to Potential Underpricing
Market analysts have identified a potentially significant valuation gap that could support further Bitcoin price appreciation. CF Benchmarks released a report indicating that Bitcoin may be trading below its fair value when compared to U.S. M2 money supply growth.
The firm noted that the divergence between M2 expansion and Bitcoin’s price has reached levels not seen since August 2024, which historically served as a strong entry point for investors. Similar patterns observed in 2016, 2019, and 2021 preceded substantial price increases.
Historical data shows Bitcoin has maintained a positive correlation with M2 money supply growth over the past decade, with monetary expansion typically leading price movements by approximately three months. If this relationship continues, increased liquidity in the fourth quarter could provide upward momentum for Bitcoin prices.
Technical Analysis and Market Structure
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces several key resistance levels that could determine its near-term direction. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that Bitcoin continues to attract buyers during intraday declines, forming what he describes as a “smooth and rather fragile uptrend.”
The critical battle zone appears to be around $112,000, with a more significant test anticipated near $115,000, just above the 50-day moving average. Maintaining levels above this threshold would signal a return to market optimism, though Bitcoin currently lags behind stock markets, which have reached record highs.
Options market activity suggests traders are seeking protection ahead of U.S. inflation data, indicating neutral-to-bearish positioning in the short term.
Altcoin Performance and Market Dynamics
Solana’s strong performance reflects underlying fundamental improvements, with Total Value Locked (TVL) reaching a record $12.2 billion, representing a 57% increase since June. The growth has been supported by renewed interest in memecoins and increased on-chain activity.
Analysts have set $300 price targets for SOL, citing persistent network activity and on-chain liquidity, though achievement of these levels likely depends on broader risk appetite in cryptocurrency markets.
Macroeconomic Factors
The cryptocurrency market faces potential volatility from upcoming macroeconomic data releases, particularly U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures scheduled for Thursday. A softer inflation trajectory could strengthen the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar, conditions typically supportive of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Why Q4 2025 Attracts Market Attention
Market participants increasingly focus on the fourth quarter of 2025 for several converging factors:
Historical Patterns: Cryptocurrency markets have historically shown strong performance during the fourth quarter, with October (“Uptober”) and November (“Pumpvember”) often delivering significant gains after relatively subdued summer months.
Federal Reserve Policy: Expected interest rate cuts could create a “risk-on” environment that benefits cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as lower yields on traditional assets drive investors toward alternative investments.
Bitcoin Halving Cycle: The Bitcoin halving mechanism, which reduces new Bitcoin issuance every four years, historically precedes new all-time highs 12-18 months later. Based on this pattern, Bitcoin could reach new peaks between April and October 2025.
Institutional Product Expansion: The SEC is reviewing 92 applications for cryptocurrency-based ETFs, including products for Dogecoin, Solana, XRP, and Litecoin. Approvals could significantly increase institutional investment flows.
Corporate Market Activity: Numerous cryptocurrency companies are preparing for public listings in Q4 2025, including CoinShares, Figure Technologies, and Gemini, suggesting industry confidence in favorable market conditions.
However, analysts caution that historical patterns don’t guarantee future performance, with some noting that current market sentiment remains neutral rather than euphoric, as measured by Fear & Greed indices and altcoin season indicators.
