Russia Could Soon Attack NATO Territory, Danish Intelligence Warns

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The more pressure Russia is under, the greater the danger to Europe: That is the gist of a new threat assessment from Denmark’s military intelligence service. In an assessment of the threat from Russia published just now, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) says Moscow could launch a limited military attack on one or more NATO countries bordering Russia as early as the coming months. The risk is low, the agency says, but growing.

At the same time, DDIS expects Russia to significantly escalate its hybrid war against Europe. A full-scale invasion of a NATO member, however, remains highly unlikely in the view of the Danish analysts.

The Hybrid War Is Escalating

According to DDIS, the security situation has deteriorated further. Russia is making greater use of sabotage and destructive cyberattacks and is targeting sites in Europe with drones. As an example, the agency points to the foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport, which German authorities say Russia had planned over several months.

Moscow has also become more willing to take risks. Russian drones, and in some cases even missiles, have already struck NATO countries bordering Ukraine. In Denmark itself, the domestic security service PET has publicly warned that Russia is planning and preparing sabotage against defense companies on Danish soil.

In the Baltic Sea region, too, the Russian military is acting increasingly aggressively toward NATO units. The most serious incident involving Danish forces so far occurred only days ago, when a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish military helicopter in the waters off Gedser.

Until recently, the hybrid attacks were mainly aimed at spreading fear and eroding public support for aid to Ukraine. Now Russia is increasingly trying to stop that aid from reaching Ukraine directly, for instance through sabotage against defense firms or rail shipments of military equipment. DDIS expects such attacks to become more frequent and to have more severe consequences. These could include cyberattacks that cripple critical functions of society as well as sabotage with a high risk of casualties.

Why Now

The Danish agency’s reasoning centers on a window of opportunity. Russia is under more pressure than at any other point in its war against Ukraine, it says. Ukrainian long-range strikes are causing ever greater damage deep inside Russia, and the Russian army is suffering heavy losses for marginal territorial gains. Military spending, international sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure have pushed the economy to the brink of a major crisis.

Russia has no prospect of a major breakthrough in Ukraine over the next six months, according to DDIS. At the same time, it is highly unlikely that President Vladimir Putin will compromise on his fundamental war aims.

Then there is Europe. Moscow believes the continent is gradually building an autonomous military capability that will pose a growing threat to Russia by 2030. From the Russian perspective, the coming years therefore offer an opening in which Putin could conclude that it is worth the risk to drastically reshape Europe’s security order. DDIS considers it likely that he will try to change the current trajectory.

What a Limited Attack Could Look Like

DDIS describes a limited military attack as a desperate move. It could happen even while the war in Ukraine continues and before Russia has built the capabilities for a regional war. The goal would be to divert European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to split NATO if the alliance fails to agree on a joint response.

The agency outlines several scenarios:

• Targeted strikes: Isolated attacks with long-range weapons on infrastructure vital to supporting Ukraine. Russia could then claim the weapons only hit NATO territory because Ukraine had jammed them.
• False flag operation: Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO country.
• Troops without insignia: A limited number of soldiers, possibly without national insignia, could move into NATO countries bordering Russia. Beforehand, however, Russia would likely mass regular forces near the border to be ready for a NATO response. Such a buildup would take several months and would be hard to conceal.

Invasion Still Unlikely

DDIS still sees no signs that Russia is preparing an outright invasion of one or more NATO countries. Even if Moscow decided to invade, preparing and building up the necessary forces would likely take at least six months. Still, such a step cannot be ruled out.

The decisive factor, according to the report, is how Moscow expects the West to react. Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it believes they will not trigger a collective NATO military response and thus a war. Where exactly that threshold lies is probably unclear to Russia itself. That creates a risk: Moscow could conclude that NATO members will not respond together, especially if it believes the United States cannot or will not support its European allies in a war against Russia.

What Other Intelligence Services Say

Denmark is not alone in sounding the alarm, though assessments across Europe differ. As The Guardian reported a few days ago, Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech security service BIS, expects limited incursions, false flag provocations or massive influence campaigns within “months, not years”. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service, called the foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle a “game changer.” Normunds Mežviets, director of Latvia’s State Security Service, struck a more cautious tone: He sees no indications of an imminent attack, even though Russia is preparing for more assertive action. Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service concluded earlier this year that Russia had no intention of attacking Estonia or NATO in 2026, while noting that the country continues a massive military buildup.

Earlier Timelines Still Stand

The new analysis supplements an assessment DDIS published in February 2025. Back then, the agency outlined when Russia could be ready for different types of war, assuming the war in Ukraine ends or freezes, Russia rearms faster than the West, and Moscow does not expect the United States to back Europe:

• About six months: Russia would be able to wage a local war against a neighboring country.
• About two years: Russia would pose a credible threat to NATO countries and be ready for a regional war in the Baltic Sea region.
• About five years: Russia would be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent.

According to DDIS, these timeframes remain valid. The updated assessment, by contrast, focuses on the near term: Russia’s willingness and ability to escalate against the West in the coming months, either through more frequent and more severe hybrid attacks or through limited military strikes on NATO countries along Russia’s border.