Bitcoin Tops $80,000 as ETF Inflows Surge Past $2.7 Billion in Three Weeks

Bitcoin crossed the $80,000 mark again at the start of the week — a level the largest cryptocurrency had not seen since the end of January. Two main drivers are behind the rise: strong inflows into US spot ETFs and a significant build-up of leveraged long positions. Underlying demand in the spot market, however, remains subdued, and prediction markets are also signalling caution.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $2.7 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks. The total net assets of these products have thereby exceeded the $100 billion mark for the first time. On Friday alone, nearly $630 million flowed into the funds — a daily result that market observers regard as a key catalyst for the recent upward move.

In parallel, market maker FlowDesk reports in a Telegram note of a growing willingness among institutional players to build leveraged long positions — particularly in larger assets such as Ether (ETH) and Near Protocol (NEAR). The combination of real capital via ETFs and speculative leverage via derivatives accounts for a significant portion of the price dynamics.

Here is an overview of developments in the major crypto assets:

On-chain data paint a divided picture

A report by analytics firm CryptoQuant dated 30 April puts the strength of the rally into perspective, however. According to the report, Bitcoin’s April rise was driven “exclusively” by growing demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand remained in decline throughout the entire period. Historically, such divergences — rising leverage alongside weakening spot demand — are regarded as an indication of fragile price gains that can correct rapidly when positions are unwound.

Geopolitics as an additional factor

The geopolitical environment is also playing a role. Risk assets already benefited on Friday from hopes of a new peace agreement between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump, however, expressed scepticism on Sunday via Truth Social regarding the current Iranian proposal, writing that he could not imagine it being acceptable. Uncertainty over the further diplomatic course thus remains a factor that could increase volatility.

On Monday morning, an additional development emerged: the US intends to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz under the name “Project Freedom.” The aim is to force a partial opening of the important passage for ships, even without an agreement with Iran.

Traders see $79,000 as the decisive level

Should Bitcoin close the week above $78,670, this would be the highest weekly closing price since the end of January. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe points to the $79,000 zone as a critical resistance area. If this area is sustainably broken through, he sees the next resistance zone at $86,000 to $88,000, followed by a decisive area between $92,000 and $94,000.

Other market observers urge caution. Trader Crypto Tony and the account JDK Analysis reference liquidation heatmaps from CoinGlass and describe the setup as “typically bearish”: fresh long positions are being opened into the highs, while the price is showing signs of absorption despite aggressive buying — a pattern that frequently precedes a correction.

Prediction markets remain cautious

On Polymarket, traders are currently pricing in a 56% probability that Bitcoin will reach the $85,000 mark in May. The probability of a rise to $90,000, by contrast, stands at only 23%. This distribution suggests that market participants are expecting a gradual upward move rather than a clear breakout.