Skeptics Pile In Ahead of SpaceX’s Record IPO: “Grossly Overvalued”
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Just before the largest IPO in history, voices calling SpaceX massively overvalued are growing louder. A look at the numbers shows: the company wants to go public at a revenue multiple that exceeds even the hottest AI startups – and is a multiple of what the most expensive listed tech giants cost.
SpaceX intends to debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, with the investor roadshow starting in early June. The targeted valuation is 1.75 trillion US dollars – by far the largest IPO of all time. The offering is set to sell 555.6 million shares at a price of 135 dollars apiece.
At a consolidated annual revenue of 18.7 billion dollars for 2025, that corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 94. At the same time, the company posted a GAAP net loss of 4.9 billion dollars in 2025, on adjusted EBITDA of 6.6 billion dollars. Into this environment, three prominent voices have stepped forward with marked skepticism.
Morningstar: fair value at less than half
The rating agency Morningstar initiated coverage of SpaceX in early June and arrives at a fair value of around 780 billion dollars – less than half the IPO target. Analyst Nicolas Owens describes the company as “significantly overvalued” and advises investors to enter after the IPO at more attractive prices instead.
Owens’ discounted cash flow model values the core business of rocket launches and Starlink at an enterprise value of around 611 billion dollars; for the AI division he adds a further roughly 170 billion dollars on a probability-weighted basis. It is precisely this AI portion that draws the criticism: Morningstar does not count Grok, the chatbot of the acquired lab xAI, among the leading AI providers, pointing to competition from OpenAI and Anthropic as well as still-unproven technologies such as orbital data centers. Starlink, too, faces technical hurdles. SpaceX received a “Narrow Moat” rating – a recognized but narrow competitive advantage. In the short term, Morningstar says, the stock could nonetheless rise due to the small free float and the strong banking syndicates.
Danish pension fund: “pure fantasy”
The Danish pension fund AkademikerPension, which manages around 25 billion dollars, has placed SpaceX on an exclusion list and is taking part in neither the IPO nor secondary-market transactions. Chief investment officer Anders Schelde calls the company “grossly overvalued” and puts the overvaluation at at least 80 percent; a fair value, he says, could not exceed 1 trillion dollars. The targeted valuation is “pure fantasy” and driven more by Musk’s narrative than by economic reality.
The main reason for the exclusion, however, is not the price but the governance, which Schelde describes as a “catastrophic governance structure.” Musk is said to hold more than 80 percent of the voting rights while simultaneously serving as CEO, CTO and chairman of the board. The fund would avoid SpaceX even at a lower valuation. In this it is not alone: the heads of CalPERS, the New York City Retirement Systems and the New York State Common Retirement Fund – together more than 1 trillion dollars in assets – had accused Musk of an “extreme” governance structure in a letter.
Michael Burry: “Nothing points to a trillion”
Michael Burry, known from “The Big Short” and his bet against the 2008 housing bubble, also voiced doubts on his Substack “Cassandra Unchained.” Neither a valuation of 1 nor of 2 trillion dollars can be derived from the IPO filings, he argues; any increase rests on “hype and technical factors.”
Burry, who recently disclosed bets against Nvidia and Palantir and had called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued,” also doubts that Anthropic, the developer of Claude, will ever be worth 1 trillion dollars – he expects demand to ease and calls the current AI demand a “false signal.” He compares the upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic to the TMT stock boom of the year 2000.
Far more expensive than the hottest AI startups
The warnings can be pinned to the following metric, for instance: the revenue multiple. SpaceX is aiming for around 94 times its annual revenue. Even Morningstar’s fair value would still correspond to about 42 times, and the Danish fund’s 1-trillion threshold to around 53 times.
For context: even the private AI startups are considered exceptionally expensive given their valuations – and SpaceX sits above them. Unlike most of these firms, moreover, the 18.7 billion dollars is an actual annual revenue, not an extrapolated ARR run rate. One key difference remains growth: SpaceX grew around 33 percent in 2025, while the likes of Cognition or Lovable multiplied their revenue over the same period.
| Company | Valuation | ARR / Revenue | Price-to-Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (IPO target) | ~1.75 trn $ | ~18.7 bn $ | ~94x |
| Legora | 5.6 bn $ | ~100 mn $ | ~56x |
| Cognition (Devin) | 26 bn $ | ~492 mn $ | ~53x |
| SpaceX (fair value per Morningstar) | 780 bn $ | ~18.7 bn $ | ~42x |
| Perplexity | ~20 bn $ | ~450 mn $ | ~44x |
| OpenAI | 852 bn $ | ~25 bn $ | ~34x |
| Mistral AI | ~12.7 bn $ | ~400 mn $ | ~32x |
| Cursor (Anysphere) | ~60 bn $ | ~2 bn $ | ~30x |
| Anthropic | 965 bn $ | ~47 bn $ | ~20.5x |
| Lovable | 6.6 bn $ | ~400 mn $ | ~16.5x |
For comparison: the Magnificent 7
The gap becomes even clearer in comparison with the seven most valuable listed tech corporations. Even the most expensive member of this group by revenue multiple – Nvidia, driven by the AI boom – trades at around 21 times, putting it roughly on the level of Anthropic. SpaceX wants to go public at about four and a half times that.
| Company | Market capitalization | Price-to-Sales (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | ~5.0 trn $ | ~21x |
| Tesla | ~1.4 trn $ | ~15x |
| Microsoft | ~3.5 trn $ | ~11x |
| Apple | ~3.9 trn $ | ~9x |
| Alphabet | ~3.9 trn $ | ~9x |
| Meta | ~1.7 trn $ | ~8x |
| Amazon | ~2.8 trn $ | ~4x |
