Bitcoin Surges to $71,000 as Fears Rise Over Longer Iran Conflict
As oil prices rise in the wake of the Iran war and stocks – particularly today on Asian exchanges – come under pressure, Bitcoin suddenly jumps significantly upward again: Bitcoin has recovered following recent geopolitical turbulence and has reached $71,000. On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency is trading again above the psychologically important threshold, after it had temporarily fallen to around $63,000.
Many other crypto-assets are also seeing recovery currently and are significantly higher on Wednesday compared to the previous week, before the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began:
| # | Coin | Price | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bitcoin BTC | $71,012.17 | ▲ 6.00% | ▲ 8.35% |
| 2 | Ethereum ETH | $2,049.63 | ▲ 4.92% | ▲ 7.48% |
| 3 | BNB BNB | $645.46 | ▲ 3.40% | ▲ 7.59% |
| 4 | XRP XRP | $1.38 | ▲ 2.58% | ▲ 1.21% |
| 5 | Solana SOL | $88.75 | ▲ 5.33% | ▲ 7.81% |
| 6 | TRON TRX | $0.2833 | ▲ 0.61% | ▼ 1.33% |
| 7 | Dogecoin DOGE | $0.09127 | ▲ 1.31% | ▼ 2.24% |
| 8 | Cardano ADA | $0.2687 | ▲ 0.81% | ▼ 0.27% |
| 9 | Bitcoin Cash BCH | $452.87 | ▲ 3.56% | ▼ 7.90% |
| 10 | UNUS SED LEO LEO | $9.21 | ▲ 1.49% | ▼ 5.91% |
ETF Inflows as a Stabilization Factor
A key driver of the price recovery is the ongoing inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Over the past five trading days, these financial products recorded net inflows of approximately $1.45 billion. This institutional demand is considered an important stabilization factor for the Bitcoin price.
Technical Factors Dominate the Movement
Market maker Enflux attributes the recent price movement primarily to technical factors. According to this view, the increase is less due to renewed bullish sentiment, but rather to the covering of short positions. Traders had positioned themselves bearishly in light of geopolitical headlines, but as the situation did not escalate further, a counter-movement began.
“The market is pricing in neither a catastrophe nor a solution,” Enflux wrote in a message to CoinDesk. “As the escalation did not immediately lead to a broader regional war, short-covering began.”
On-Chain Data Shows Cautious Stabilization
Analysis from Glassnode indicates market stabilization, but without strong conviction in any particular direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 36 to approximately 41, but remains below the neutral 50 mark. Trading volume on the spot market increased from $6.6 billion to approximately $9.6 billion, with buy and sell flows increasingly balancing out.
While the spot market recovers, derivatives markets continue to show caution. The costs for leveraged long positions have declined significantly, and sellers continue to dominate futures trading. This suggests that traders using leveraged products are not yet convinced of a sustained recovery.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket also show waning conviction for further price declines. The probability that Bitcoin will fall to $65,000 in March decreased by 11 percentage points to 73 percent. The probability of a decline to $60,000 decreased by 10 percentage points to 41 percent.
Long-Term Context: Five-Month Correction
Despite the recent recovery, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since October 2025. Measured from its peak, the price fell at times by more than 50 percent. For five consecutive months, Bitcoin recorded losses, a phenomenon last observed in the bear market of 2018. The current price strength could suggest that there is little selling pressure at current levels.
The available data suggests that Bitcoin has found support in the short term. However, traders remain cautious and are pricing in neither a significant rally nor a deeper selloff. Institutional demand via ETFs remains an important support factor, while derivatives markets continue to signal restraint. Whether Bitcoin can establish itself as a crisis-resistant asset will only become clear over a longer period of time.
