Iran War: $100 Billion in Extra Costs Puts Trump Under Pressure Ahead of the Midterms

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The war with Iran is increasingly burdening U.S. consumers through higher fuel prices. According to a Brown University estimate reported by Axios, additional spending on gasoline and diesel since the war began on February 28 reached approximately $100 billion by the morning of September 7. That amounts to more than $760 per household on average. With less than two months until the congressional elections, rising costs coincide with low approval ratings for President Donald Trump and majority opposition to U.S. military strikes against Iran.

More Than $760 in Additional Costs per Household

The estimate comes from the Iran War Energy Cost Tracker, developed by Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab. According to the Axios report based on the tracker, the burden is currently growing by approximately $1 million every two minutes. Texas accounts for the largest total additional costs, at around $11 billion, followed by California at $8 billion and Florida at $5 billion.

As Brown University explains in its methodology, researchers compare actual fuel prices with a modeled price trajectory without the war and multiply the difference by fuel consumption. The $760 figure is therefore a calculated average; the impact on individual households depends partly on how much fuel they consume. Government military spending adds to this economic burden.

Record Diesel Prices Increase Pressure on the Economy

Diesel prices have risen particularly sharply in recent weeks. According to AAA data, the national average reached approximately $5.90 per U.S. gallon, equivalent to around 3.785 liters, on September 7. That represents a nominal record and an increase of roughly 59 percent from a year earlier. Regular gasoline averaged around $4.15 per gallon, compared with approximately $3.20 a year earlier.

The effects extend beyond filling up a vehicle. More expensive diesel raises freight costs, increasing pressure on businesses. If those costs are passed on, food and other consumer goods can also become more expensive. Brown’s researchers highlight the indirect burden on households as higher diesel costs move through supply chains.

Trump’s Approval Rating at a Historic Low

This poses a particular political problem for the Trump administration because the cost of living is central to the election campaign. In a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted August 28–31, 47 percent of registered voters identified it as the most important factor in their midterm voting decision. Meanwhile, 71 percent of adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 22 percent approved.

Trump’s overall approval rating is also at an all-time low within the Reuters/Ipsos polling series covering both of his presidential terms. According to the late-August polling data, 33 percent of respondents approved of his job performance, while 63 percent disapproved. As Reuters reported, he had already reached the 33 percent low in earlier August surveys. The description “all-time low” refers specifically to this polling series; other pollsters may report different results.

36 Percent Support Military Strikes Against Iran

The military strikes against Iran also lack majority support. In the August 28–31 Reuters/Ipsos survey, 36 percent of adults approved of the strikes, while 59 percent disapproved. In a separate question weighing costs and benefits, 25 percent considered U.S. military action worthwhile, while 54 percent did not. Among Republicans, however, 76 percent still supported the strikes. The survey covered 1,167 adults and had a margin of error of approximately three percentage points for the full sample.

Trump argues that the war is necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. At the same time, he campaigned in 2024 on promises to curb inflation and avoid prolonged military conflicts, as Reuters notes. The continuing war and higher prices make those promises harder for Republicans to defend ahead of the election.

Why Higher Costs Could Prove Decisive in the Midterms

This creates a substantial risk heading into the November 3 midterm elections. If costs remain high, dissatisfaction with the president could also cost Republican congressional candidates votes. Trump himself is not on the ballot. However, losing control of either chamber of Congress could make his legislative agenda considerably harder to advance and give the opposition greater scope to scrutinize his administration.

The polls alone do not establish that Republicans will suffer an election defeat. They do show, however, that an unpopular war and tangible additional expenses are converging on the issue that matters most to many voters. How that combination plays out by November will also depend on the course of the war, energy prices and both parties’ ability to turn out their supporters.