Oil Shock: Bitcoin Slips Toward $81,000
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“Uptober” can turn quickly: On Wednesday, Bitcoin was closing in on $85,000; by Thursday, the largest cryptocurrency was back at around $81,300 (about €72,500). That is a loss of almost 4 percent over 24 hours, wiping out the week’s gains. According to Bitcoin Magazine, the trigger was an oil price that jumped above $110 a barrel after new attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Saudi Arabia. Only on Wednesday had Bitcoin climbed back above $83,000.
Prices at a Glance
The following table shows the largest crypto assets by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), according to CoinMarketCap, as of Thursday evening.
| Crypto asset | Price | 24 hours | 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $81,304.25 | −3.66% | −1.45% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,384.62 | −4.90% | −2.66% |
| BNB (BNB) | $727.84 | −2.87% | −0.71% |
| XRP (XRP) | $1.31 | −4.69% | −2.05% |
| Solana (SOL) | $103.55 | −4.17% | −2.38% |
| Tron (TRX) | $0.3278 | −1.55% | −1.04% |
| Zcash (ZEC) | $1,201.55 | −10.38% | −1.58% |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | $77.24 | −4.58% | −5.51% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.07830 | −5.73% | −3.34% |
| Monero (XMR) | $615.06 | +1.58% | +12.73% |
| Chainlink (LINK) | $11.88 | −6.08% | −4.94% |
| UNUS SED LEO (LEO) | $9.04 | +0.01% | 0.00% |
| Cardano (ADA) | $0.2117 | −7.00% | −7.99% |
That puts Bitcoin’s market capitalization at about $1.63 trillion. The rest of the market is losing considerably more in some cases: Zcash gave up more than 10 percent after its rally of the previous days, while Cardano and Chainlink each fell 6 to 7 percent. Once again, the only winner among the large assets is Monero, which is up almost 13 percent over the week. Crypto stocks were hit even harder: According to CoinDesk, Strategy lost 5.6 percent in early trading, Circle 4.6 percent, MARA 4.2 percent and Coinbase 4 percent.
Fear & Greed Index: Greed Is Lagging Behind
Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 68 points on Thursday, firmly in “greed” territory, up from 63 points the day before. That looks paradoxical, but there is a technical reason: The index is calculated once a day and does not yet reflect Thursday’s slide. It combines volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment and Bitcoin dominance, among other factors, into a single value between 0 (extreme fear) and 100 (extreme greed). The interesting question is how far it will fall on Friday.
ETF Flows: Three Days, One Billion
Institutional buyers, at least, were not deterred from Monday through Wednesday. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $524.8 million on Wednesday, according to Farside Investors. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $235 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $212.7 million, and not a single fund saw outflows. Together with Monday ($526.7 million) and Tuesday ($23.2 million), that adds up to around $1.07 billion in three days. Ether ETFs also ended a five-day outflow streak with a small inflow of $14.9 million. Whether demand holds up after Thursday’s pullback will only become clear in the coming trading sessions.
What Is Moving the Broader Market
- Oil and the Middle East: New Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are fueling fears of supply disruptions and a wider war in the region. President Trump accused Iran of deliberately driving up oil prices ahead of the midterm elections and even of making up hits and mines.
- Interest rates: Expensive oil fuels inflation and has so far been seen as an argument for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which meets next week. On Thursday, however, markets moved differently: Investors fled into U.S. Treasuries, and the 10-year yield fell below 5 percent for the first time in a month. The probability of a rate hike next week dropped to 8 percent, from 28 percent a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch.
- Tech stocks: The Nasdaq was down more than 2 percent on Thursday as the sell-off in A.I. stocks continued. Bitcoin has often moved in lockstep with tech stocks for months.
- Europe: The yield on 10-year French government bonds rose to 5.08 percent, and its spread over German Bunds reached a 15-year high of 174 basis points, fueling fears of a new debt crisis in the E.U.
- U.S. election: Americans vote in less than two weeks, and inflation is one of the hottest topics. On Polymarket, the probability that Democrats win both chambers of Congress stands at 67 percent.
- Labor market: Initial jobless claims fell to 194,000, remaining historically low. A robust labor market gives the Fed little reason to ease.
Despite the pullback, analysts still see Bitcoin in a bull market because the price remains above its 365-day moving average. The third quarter was also its best in years, and in September Bitcoin shrugged off a Fed rate hike and the failure of the Clarity Act crypto bill in Congress. Historically, however, Bitcoin has mostly reacted to war news with losses: When the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, the price plunged, and it remained shaky in March and April.
