Bitcoin Kicks Off Uptober at $86,000
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Bitcoin skipped the autumn blues and is marching into Uptober at $86,000, while the rest of the financial world is still wrestling with interest rates and bond yields.
The largest cryptocurrency currently trades at around $86,400, up more than 3 percent over 24 hours and more than 2 percent over seven days. After two weak quarters with losses of roughly 22 and 14 percent, the third quarter delivered a gain of about 40 percent, and September closed as one of the strongest Septembers on record. Even so, Bitcoin was still slightly down for the year at last check.
What is driving the market
The spark came from an unlikely place: since the US Treasury announced it would expand buybacks of long-dated government bonds, Bitcoin has gained almost 30 percent. Falling long-term yields and a weaker dollar are tailwinds for risk assets. Companies are back as buyers too. Strategy recently bought $370 million worth of Bitcoin, its first purchase since June, and hopes for friendlier US rules have attracted bargain hunters. The CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill, remains in limbo.
Headwinds are plentiful. The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries sits above 5 percent. Stubborn inflation and a resilient labor market keep further rate hikes on the table. A softer-than-expected inflation reading briefly pushed Bitcoin above $85,000, but the gains faded as bond yields refused to fall. In September the price swung between roughly $75,000 and $88,000. Chart watchers see $85,000 as the level to hold and the area around $80,000 as key support.
Crypto ETFs: the inflows are back
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have staged a remarkable turnaround. August brought in $3.52 billion in net inflows according to SoSoValue, the best month of the year, after July’s inflows of just $172 million and June’s outflow of $4.51 billion, the largest of the year. In the week through September 25, about $2.4 billion flowed into the products, the biggest weekly intake since last October. That swung the year-to-date balance from roughly $5 billion in outflows at the end of July to about $1 billion in net inflows.
Beyond Bitcoin, things are moving too. Ether ETFs are up about $0.9 billion this year, and XRP funds have gathered about $0.5 billion. Recently, though, inflows concentrated heavily on Bitcoin, while momentum in Ether and XRP products faded sharply.
The biggest cryptocurrencies at a glance
The table shows the largest crypto assets excluding stablecoins. All prices are in US dollars, source: CoinMarketCap.
| Asset | Price | 24h | 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $86,372.54 | +3.02% | +2.09% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,747.56 | +1.98% | +1.60% |
| BNB (BNB) | $775.51 | +0.87% | -0.05% |
| XRP (XRP) | $1.53 | +3.00% | -1.33% |
| Solana (SOL) | $121.75 | +3.21% | +2.89% |
| TRON (TRX) | $0.3344 | -0.56% | -0.82% |
| Zcash (ZEC) | $1,384.19 | -1.54% | -12.87% |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | $90.06 | +1.05% | -3.83% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.09680 | +2.31% | +0.05% |
| Chainlink (LINK) | $14.35 | +0.33% | +1.85% |
| Monero (XMR) | $546.72 | -0.10% | -3.73% |
| Cardano (ADA) | $0.2555 | +3.42% | +0.39% |
| UNUS SED LEO (LEO) | $8.95 | +1.26% | +1.74% |
| Stellar (XLM) | $0.2255 | +0.88% | +2.44% |
| NEAR Protocol (NEAR) | $4.89 | +6.25% | -2.30% |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | $315.64 | +2.57% | -6.87% |
The broader market is rising along with Bitcoin on the day, led by NEAR, Cardano and Solana. Over the week, Zcash stands out with a drop of almost 13 percent.
Uptober: the thesis and its limits
Uptober rests on a simple statistic: since 2013, Bitcoin has gained about 20 percent in October on average according to CoinGlass, with only November stronger at more than 40 percent on average. The fourth quarter is the year’s strongest, with an average gain of 78 percent. The common thesis behind it: after the quiet summer months, liquidity and institutional investors return, portfolios get repositioned ahead of year-end, and because so many traders know the pattern, they position early and help fulfill it themselves.
It is not guaranteed. Last year October ended about 3 percent lower after six green years in a row, only the third red October since 2013, and a mid-month crash with record liquidations rattled the market. Trader Velez points out that the big October gains usually arrive in the second half of the month, after the 19th. Analyst Timothy Peterson sees virtually no correlation between October and the months that follow: after a weak October the three-month return averages 11 percent, after a strong one 21 percent. The seasonal rule also rests on only a little more than a dozen data points.
What to watch now
Rate expectations, the path of bond yields, the direction of ETF flows and the fate of the CLARITY Act will set the course in the coming weeks. On the chart, $85,000 is the level to hold, with support around $80,000.
