Guest Commentary

Bitcoin Futures Market Calms, but a New Bull Run Still Needs a Spark

Guest Post27. October 2026, 14:13

Bitcoin on a trading chart © Kanchanara / Unsplash

The Bitcoin futures market is returning to normal: the annualized basis sits well below the peaks of earlier market cycles. That does not yet signal a new bull market. A lasting upswing may need a stronger push from the economic environment or fresh liquidity.

A market commentary by Marc des Ligneris, senior portfolio manager at CoinShares

Recovery Without Euphoria

Chart: annualized rolling three-month basis of Bitcoin futures and perpetuals, 2021 to 2026 — Annualized rolling three-month basis of Bitcoin futures and perpetuals, 2021 to 2026. Source: CoinShares, Glassnode

The accompanying chart shows the rolling, annualized three-month basis for Bitcoin perpetual futures and quarterly futures on the major trading venues. It offers clues about how much market participants pay for positions that bet on rising prices, and about the mood in the market. Funding rates on perpetual futures should be kept apart from the basis on futures with a fixed expiry. In the 2022 bear market, the basis turned sharply negative, particularly around the collapse of FTX (a major crypto exchange that filed for bankruptcy in November 2022). It rebounded strongly in early 2023. In the 2024 bull market, it peaked above 20 percent, a sign of strong demand for leveraged positions. 2026 has played out differently: the basis fell until March, and for perpetual futures the measure briefly dipped below zero in the spring. The subsequent recovery picked up speed in July.

In the data behind this commentary, both measures hover at around 5 to 6 percent on an annualized basis. That is slightly above their long-term reference level, but far below the extremes of earlier cycles. In our view, the market has normalized. It is still too early, however, to call a new bull market. We attribute the recent price rise mainly to the unwinding of short call positions. With the basis recovering, some cash-and-carry trades have also become attractive again: investors buy Bitcoin spot E.T.F.s and sell futures at the same time to capture the price difference. Apart from these positioning effects, we see few signs so far that confidence is rising across the board. The moderate basis points to less euphoria, but it does not prove that the risks of leveraged positions have gone away.

Waiting for the Next Spark

A clear easing of tensions in the Middle East could improve the market environment, especially if it pushes oil prices lower and takes pressure off inflation. Another possible catalyst would be extra liquidity from central banks responding to an economic or financial shock. A sharp correction in the U.S. A.I. sector is one conceivable trigger: large cloud providers could struggle to earn adequate returns on their heavy investments. At the same time, open-source models could squeeze prices, and circular business relationships could raise the risk of a chain reaction of defaults. A sovereign debt crisis in Europe or Japan is another possible scenario. These are scenarios worth watching, and we do not present them as forecasts of inevitable developments.

Either scenario could initially weigh heavily on financial markets. In the past, Bitcoin has benefited from several phases of rising liquidity. Whether that repeats depends on the nature of the shock and on how policymakers and central banks respond. For now, we remain cautious: the moderate basis leaves room for stronger demand without the market immediately returning to the excesses of earlier cycles. A lasting recovery, however, requires broader participation from investors and a convincing trigger.

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