Bitcoin Back at $65,000 as Oil and Gas Prices Fall

The U.S. and Iran have held fire for a second consecutive day, and risk appetite is returning to the markets. Bitcoin is back above $65,000, while Ethereum is climbing considerably faster — fuelling hopes of an emerging rotation into altcoins.

It is a pattern familiar from recent months: as soon as the guns fall silent in the Middle East, sentiment on financial markets turns. After the United States and Iran refrained from airstrikes for a second day running on Sunday, the classic “peace trades” are back. Oil prices are dropping sharply, equity futures are gaining — and crypto assets are riding along.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $65,000 mark and is trading at around $65,500. Ether is back at nearly $1,965, making it the clear outperformer among the large-cap assets. Solana, XRP and the remaining top-10 tokens are also in the green.

Oil slumps, equity futures advance

The energy market is showing the sharpest reaction. WTI futures gapped lower on Monday and are down around five percent at roughly $85. Brent crude is falling 4.7 percent to $92.19. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are each up around half a percent, while on currency markets the Australian dollar and the euro are gaining against the greenback — a textbook risk-on picture.

The war, which began in late February, had already given way once to a fragile ceasefire in the second quarter, only for it to unravel quickly. Iran has now reportedly signalled that it will keep airstrikes suspended for as long as the U.S. does the same. Whether that turns into a durable peace process remains an open question — but markets are certainly pricing in the possibility.

The largest crypto assets at a glance

The following snapshot shows the largest crypto assets by market capitalisation (excluding the stablecoins USDT and USDC), with their performance over 24 hours and seven days:

Source: CoinMarketCap, snapshot taken on July 27, 2026. Rank numbers refer to the full list including stablecoins. The CMC20 index, which tracks the 20 largest assets, stands at $132.89 (+2.05% over 24 hours, +1.95% over seven days).

One detail stands out: alongside Ether, it is Zcash that is showing strength — the privacy asset is the second-best performer in the list on a weekly basis. Hyperliquid, despite a daily gain of almost three percent, is the only asset in the red over seven days.

Fed meeting is the next hurdle

The rally is not driven by geopolitics alone. <cite index=”0-0″>”Prices are also responding to macro developments,”</cite> says Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian crypto exchange Giottus, in a written statement. The fall in Brent, he argues, has taken some pressure off inflation concerns — but the real risk is the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28 and 29. According to Subburaj, markets are currently assigning a 36.3 percent probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase.

Subburaj reads Ether’s stronger showing as a sign of an incipient rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies. A broad altcoin rally, however, is not yet in evidence: bitcoin dominance remains at 58.6 percent.

Cycle analysts see a bottom approaching

In parallel, a section of the analyst community continues to argue from bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, points out on X that historically some 900 days have elapsed between each halving and the trough of the subsequent bear market. The current cycle stands at day 827 — on that pattern, bitcoin would be forming its bottom right now, with a possible final low within the next two months.

Whether the pattern holds this time is, as always, the open question. In the short term, direction hinges on two dates over which crypto investors have no influence: the Fed decision this week, and whether the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran survives a third day.