Energy

Gas Tops €100 as Europe’s Storage Heads Into Winter at Unusually Low Levels

co-produced by AI30. October 2026, 14:59

Close-up of a blue gas flame on a stove burner — European gas prices have climbed above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since 2022. © Avinash Shet/Unsplash

Winter has not even started, and gas is already as expensive as it was during the 2022 energy crisis. Europe’s benchmark gas price, the Dutch TTF contract traded in Amsterdam, rose above €100 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday for the first time in three years. On Friday morning, the December contract stood at about €102, more than 4 percent above the previous evening’s close. In early September, the price was about €70, and before the Iran war it was about €30.

What Is Driving the Price

The main reason is the war between the United States and Iran. For months, shipping has been disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which much of the Middle East’s liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., reaches the world market. According to the research firm Rystad Energy, Europe’s L.N.G. imports in one week in early October were 30 percent lower than a year earlier.

Fears of a new escalation have added to the pressure. President Trump has been briefed on military options against Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal, and there is speculation about new strikes after the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday. Iran, for its part, says the strait is closed to ships that do not coordinate with its navy. Oil is correspondingly expensive: A barrel of Brent crude costs about $117 (about €105).

Storage Is Unusually Low

The problem is that Europe has smaller reserves this time. E.U. gas storage is about 75 percent full, compared with almost 83 percent a year ago, according to the Austrian public broadcaster ORF. In Austria, the level is 67.8 percent, down from 84.1 percent last year. In Germany, it is about 61 percent, compared with about 75 percent a year ago. The German government has already instructed the state-owned company SEFE to buy additional gas for storage.

The weather is another factor. The fall has been mild so far, but forecasts call for below-average temperatures in early November. A prolonged cold spell would raise consumption and put more pressure on storage.

What It Means for Households and Industry

For many households, the bill will arrive with a delay. Fixed-price contracts are usually adjusted only once a year, while customers on so-called floating tariffs, which track the wholesale price, feel the increase immediately. Analysts expect most of the price increases to show up in bills only in 2027. In Germany, new customers are already paying about 55 percent more this year, according to Reuters.

In Austria, energy is already driving inflation. According to Statistics Austria, inflation rose to 3.6 percent in September, with energy prices up 15.1 percent from a year earlier and gas up 11.8 percent. Across the eurozone, inflation recently climbed to 3.8 percent.

Industry, which often buys gas directly at wholesale prices, is being hit harder. Chemical, fertilizer and steel producers have already cut some output. E.U. governments have spent €17.9 billion this year to help households and businesses with energy costs, according to Reuters. At the same time, the crisis is boosting demand for alternatives such as heat pumps, whose sales in Europe rose 11 percent in the first half of the year.

Why Supply Is Still Considered Secure

So far, there has been no talk of a gas shortage like the one in 2022. Klaus Müller, the president of Germany’s Federal Network Agency, said in September that he did not see winter supply at risk: More gas had already been stored than was withdrawn during the entire previous winter. Germany’s L.N.G. terminals were running at only about 45 percent of capacity, he said, and additional gas could come through pipelines from countries such as Norway. Mr. Müller rejected government intervention in the market. The gap to the 2022 crisis is also still large: Back then, the gas price peaked at almost €340 per megawatt-hour.

Diplomacy could also ease the situation. According to U.S. media reports, new mediation efforts led by Vice President JD Vance are underway alongside the plans for strikes. Analysts nonetheless expect gas to remain expensive for at least another year, even if the war ends and the winter turns out to be mild. An analyst at Argus Media has already raised the next question: Above €100, he said, the question increasingly becomes at what price governments will step in to curb demand.