Bitcoin Slides Below $82,000 as Liquidations Top $1 Billion

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Oil, rate fears and ETF outflows: Bitcoin has just fallen below $82,000 and is trading at about $81,750 (about €72,900), according to CoinGecko, down about 2 percent over 24 hours. During the day, it dropped as low as about $80,400. Earlier this week, Bitcoin was still at $86,000, and yesterday it fell below $84,000.

Oil, the Fed and Treasuries Weigh on Prices

Once again, oil tipped the balance. After an overnight attack on a tanker off the coast of Qatar, Brent crude briefly climbed above $105 a barrel. President Trump said the United States had no plans to attack Iran before the midterm elections in November, but that the blockade would remain in place. The Federal Reserve adds to the pressure: According to the minutes of its September meeting, released on Wednesday, most members see another rate increase before year-end as likely. Treasury yields kept rising, making risk assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive.

ETF investors are pulling back, too. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of about $487 million (about €434 million) on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue, the largest daily outflow in weeks. Wallets linked to the U.S. government added to the jitters: According to the analytics firm Arkham, 12,267 Bitcoin worth about $1 billion from assets seized after the Bitfinex hack were moved to new addresses. The day before, about 3,200 Bitcoin had been sent to deposit addresses at the exchange Coinbase Prime, which the market read as a possible sale.

Leveraged Bets Get Wiped Out

As in the days before, the derivatives market amplified the decline. According to CoinGlass, positions worth about $1 billion (about €890 million) were forcibly closed over 24 hours, more than 90 percent of them bets on rising prices. Ether positions were hit hardest.

Altcoins once again fell much harder than Bitcoin. Ether lost about 4 percent to roughly $2,460 (about €2,200) and is down more than 9 percent on the week. Solana dropped almost 6 percent and Cardano about 9 percent. Zcash plunged 12 percent, and NEAR Protocol as much as 14 percent.

Analysis: $80,000 Is the Next Test

Analysts had seen the zone between $82,000 and $83,000 as key support, among them Jeff Ko, chief analyst at the crypto mining pool ViaBTC. That level has now given way. Lacie Zhang, head of research at Bitget Wallet, had warned that in this case Bitcoin could slide faster toward $80,000. A sustained break below that round number would cloud the outlook for October considerably. On the prediction market Kalshi, traders are already betting on a drop to $78,000 this month.

That also puts “Uptober” at risk: According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has gained more than 18 percent on average in October since 2013, but the month is currently down about 3 percent. “Seasonality alone is not an investment thesis,” Ms. Zhang said. At least the wave of liquidations has flushed a lot of leverage out of the market. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to a neutral 53, so the market is far from panic. The coming weeks are likely to be decisive: If oil stays above $100, the chances of another rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting at the end of October will rise, which would likely weigh further on Bitcoin.

The Largest Crypto Assets at a Glance

The table below shows the largest crypto assets by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins and tokenized assets), according to CoinGecko, with prices in euros.