The Polar Vortex Is Breaking Early, and Europe’s Gas Storage Is Low
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Of all years, the polar vortex could collapse earlier than ever recorded in the one when Europe’s gas storage is unusually empty. Weather models are forecasting a sudden warming of the stratosphere over the Arctic in the first week of November that could split the cold engine above the North Pole. According to Gizmodo, 86 percent of the ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predict that the winds in the stratosphere will reverse by the second week of November. That has never happened this early in the season since records began in 1959.
What Is Happening Above the North Pole
The polar vortex is a band of strong westerly winds 30 to 50 kilometers (about 19 to 31 miles) above the ground that keeps cold air locked over the Arctic in winter. When it is disrupted, that cold air can break out to the south. The current trigger is a powerful high-pressure system between Scandinavia and the Ural Mountains, which is sending waves into the stratosphere and slowing the vortex down.
Disruptions like this happen almost every winter, but usually in January or February. The earliest major events so far both came in late November, in 1968 and last year. This time, it could happen three weeks sooner.
Fabian Ruhnau, a meteorologist at the German forecaster Kachelmannwetter, told the news site t-online that nothing like it had been seen since records began. Judah Cohen, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, cautioned against too much certainty. The models have never seen an event this early, he said, so “they’re going to struggle with it.” It usually takes two to six weeks for a disruption in the stratosphere to affect the weather on the ground. “I wouldn’t expect to see the impacts until sometime in December,” Dr. Cohen said.
Storage Well Below Average
For the gas market, the news could hardly come at a worse time. According to data from Europe’s AGSI storage platform, compiled by the German site Gasspeicherkarte, E.U. storage facilities are 74.8 percent full. That is almost 15 percentage points below the five-year average for the date, a shortfall of about 170 terawatt-hours. In Austria, storage stands at 67 percent.
Germany is in the tightest spot. Its storage is 61.4 percent full, compared with a five-year average of 88.7 percent for this time of year, a gap of about 68 terawatt-hours. That means Germany has missed its winter target of 70 percent. Recently, far more gas has been withdrawn from German storage than injected.
The market is already reacting. The European benchmark price, TTF, rose 6 percent on Friday to about €104 per megawatt-hour, according to Trading Economics, up more than 40 percent in a month. As reported, the gas price recently topped €100, driven by the war between the United States and Iran and the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
What a Cold Winter Would Mean for Gas Prices
Cold weather means more demand for heating, and in Europe much of that is covered by storage. The earlier and harder the reserves are tapped, the more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) Europe has to buy, competing with Asia for cargoes. Martin Senior of the price reporting agency Argus Media told the German business daily Handelsblatt that persistent demand from Asia has been pulling LNG shipments away from Europe. According to forecasts cited by t-online, the gas price could rise to about €130 per megawatt-hour in early 2027 if the winter turns very cold.
Households will feel it with a delay. Customers on variable tariffs tied to the wholesale price notice every cold snap right away. For fixed-price contracts, higher purchasing costs usually show up at the next price adjustment.
Why Meteorologists Warn Against ‘Ice Winter’ Panic
An early polar vortex split, however, is a long way from a frozen winter. Mr. Ruhnau himself dismissed such headlines as complete nonsense. The meteorologist Dominik Jung outlined three scenarios to t-online: The cold air could move toward North America or Asia, the disruption could stay in the stratosphere, or it could actually reach Central Europe and bring frost and snow to the lowlands. A weakening is certain, he said, but how strong it will be is still open. Seasonal models continue to show mostly warmer-than-average temperatures for the coming months, and the vortex often recovers by December or January.
There is also reassurance on supply. A spokesman for Germany’s economy ministry said storage levels should not be viewed in isolation. Unlike in 2022, Germany can now import gas through its own LNG terminals and pipelines from Norway. Klaus Müller, the president of Germany’s Federal Network Agency, said back in September that he did not see winter supplies at risk.
